Withdrawal Rate Simulator
Model how long a retirement portfolio might last under a fixed withdrawal plan. Adjust the withdrawal rate, returns, and inflation to see whether your money tends to grow, glide, or run out.
Portfolio & Market Assumptions
Withdrawal Strategy
Withdrawal mode
Implied starting withdrawal rate: 4.00% of the initial portfolio. This is your personal "safe withdrawal rate" guess for this scenario.
Longevity Snapshot
Ending balance (nominal)
$2,164,771
Ending balance (today's dollars)
$1,057,840
Total withdrawn (nominal)
$2,107,330
Total withdrawn (today's dollars)
$1,440,000
Average yearly withdrawal (real)
$48,000
Portfolio depleted
Not within horizon
• The portfolio lasts for the full 30 years in this scenario.
• After inflation, you finish with about $1,057,840, preserving roughly 88.2% of your initial purchasing power.
Quick Interpretation
- • This is a single-path, constant-return model. Real markets are noisy and sequence of returns can materially change outcomes.
- • If you want more safety, either lower the withdrawal rate, shorten the horizon, or assume lower returns / higher inflation and see if the plan still survives.
- • In future versions, you can layer in Monte Carlo simulations, tax drag, required minimum distributions, and shifting stock/bond mixes by age.
Year-by-Year Projection
| Year | Start balance | Withdrawal | End balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,200,000 | $48,000 | $1,226,880 |
| 2 | $1,226,880 | $49,200 | $1,254,229 |
| 3 | $1,254,229 | $50,430 | $1,282,046 |
| 4 | $1,282,046 | $51,691 | $1,310,328 |
| 5 | $1,310,328 | $52,983 | $1,339,073 |
| 6 | $1,339,073 | $54,308 | $1,368,275 |
| 7 | $1,368,275 | $55,665 | $1,397,929 |
| 8 | $1,397,929 | $57,057 | $1,428,029 |
| 9 | $1,428,029 | $58,483 | $1,458,566 |
| 10 | $1,458,566 | $59,945 | $1,489,531 |
| 11 | $1,489,531 | $61,444 | $1,520,913 |
| 12 | $1,520,913 | $62,980 | $1,552,698 |
| 13 | $1,552,698 | $64,555 | $1,584,873 |
| 14 | $1,584,873 | $66,169 | $1,617,420 |
| 15 | $1,617,420 | $67,823 | $1,650,321 |
| 16 | $1,650,321 | $69,518 | $1,683,555 |
| 17 | $1,683,555 | $71,256 | $1,717,099 |
| 18 | $1,717,099 | $73,038 | $1,750,925 |
| 19 | $1,750,925 | $74,864 | $1,785,005 |
| 20 | $1,785,005 | $76,735 | $1,819,307 |
| 21 | $1,819,307 | $78,654 | $1,853,796 |
| 22 | $1,853,796 | $80,620 | $1,888,433 |
| 23 | $1,888,433 | $82,635 | $1,923,174 |
| 24 | $1,923,174 | $84,701 | $1,957,974 |
| 25 | $1,957,974 | $86,819 | $1,992,780 |
| 26 | $1,992,780 | $88,989 | $2,027,537 |
| 27 | $2,027,537 | $91,214 | $2,062,184 |
| 28 | $2,062,184 | $93,494 | $2,096,654 |
| 29 | $2,096,654 | $95,832 | $2,130,876 |
| 30 | $2,130,876 | $98,228 | $2,164,771 |
Real values are adjusted back using your inflation assumption so you can compare each year's numbers in today's dollars.
This is an educational model and does not account for taxes, fees, or market volatility. It's a planning sandbox, not a prediction.